I go Oscar-crazy every year, and this year, I’m actually doing quite well in seeing all of the major pictures ahead of time.  I just saw No Country for Old Men today, and it was fantastic.  I can’t wait to do my annual “Kate’s Top Ten of the Year,” which I will unveil right before the Oscars (or right after I see enough movies).

There are always upsets at the Academy Awards, even with nominations.

My prediction for this year’s big shocker?

No Best Picture nomination for Atonement.

Mark my words.  I knew that would happen with Cold Mountain, I knew that would happen with Dreamgirls, and I swear to you, that’s going to happen with Atonement as well.

So, what will the five nominees be?  Here’s what I think:

  • No Country for Old Men
  • Juno
  • There Will Be Blood
  • Michael Clayton
  • The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Just wait and see.

I can’t think of any other major upsets, but I hope to see nominations for my favorite performers of the year: Ryan Gosling in Lars and the Real Girl, Javier Bardem and Tommy Lee Jones in No Country for Old Men, Ellen Page in Juno, Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone, and George Clooney and Tom Wilkinson in Michael Clayton.

Watch.  Atonement will be overlooked for Best Picture, but it may win the most nominations — it’s a shoo-in for cinematography (that GORGEOUS four-minute shot was so good, I was LAUGHING!) and costumes alone, and will probably garner several other tech nominations.